Birth rates fell again. The countries beating the trend share one policy.

The global total fertility rate fell to 2.1 in 2025 — exactly replacement level for the world as a whole, but a figure that obscures dramatic variation across regions and income groups. In high-income countries, the average has fallen to 1.5. In several East Asian economies, it is below 1.0. The global average is being held up almost entirely by sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility remains above 4.0.

Against this backdrop, a small group of countries has managed to stabilise or modestly improve their fertility rates since 2020. They include Hungary, Sweden, Estonia, Israel, and — most surprisingly — Kazakhstan. They are very different countries with very different economic systems and cultural traditions. They share one policy.