Goldman cuts U.S. recession odds to 18% as job revisions outpace expectations

Goldman Sachs has cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 18 percent from 25 percent, citing a run of upward revisions to employment data that its economists say represents a “meaningful signal” about underlying labor market strength.

The revision, published in a research note on Thursday, puts Goldman below the consensus of major bank forecasts, most of which cluster between 20 and 28 percent. It comes after three consecutive months of upward revisions to nonfarm payrolls that collectively added 340,000 jobs to the previously reported figures.